Build a node-level supply chain map that traces sub-tier dependencies beyond the immediate supplier list.
Warehousing & Procurement
Stress Testing Supply Chains with Time-to-Recover and Time-to-Survive Metrics
Stress test supply chain nodes using time-to-recover and time-to-survive metrics, map single points of failure and prioritise resilience investment where exposure is greatest.
🗓️Duration5 training days
📚Content4 modules · 8 sessions
🎓On completionAccredited attendance certificate
About the programme
Course Overview
Most supply chain risk registers list hazards without answering the one question that actually determines exposure: if this specific node stopped producing today, how long would it take to recover, and how long could the business keep serving customers before that recovery matters. This course builds that answer using the time-to-recover and time-to-survive framework, working node by node through a supply chain map to estimate the time required to restore a disrupted supplier, port or facility to full output, and separately, the time inventory and alternative sources allow the business to keep operating without it. Participants learn how to build the node-level map itself, tracing not just tier-one suppliers but the sub-tier dependencies and single points of failure that rarely appear in a standard supplier list, and how to run structured stress test scenarios against specific disruption types rather than generic risk categories. The course closes with translating the resulting exposure gaps, where time-to-recover exceeds time-to-survive, into a prioritised resilience investment plan covering dual sourcing, buffer inventory and contractual continuity commitments, so that investment goes to the nodes where it actually changes the outcome of a disruption.
Expected Learning Outcomes
Estimate time-to-recover for a disrupted node based on realistic restoration timelines rather than optimistic assumptions.
Calculate time-to-survive based on current inventory, alternative sources and demand substitution options.
Identify single points of failure where no alternative source or inventory buffer currently exists.
Run structured stress test scenarios against specific disruption types rather than generic risk categories.
Prioritise resilience investment toward nodes where time-to-recover exceeds time-to-survive by the widest margin.
Present a resilience investment plan to leadership with the exposure evidence that justifies the spend.
Who Should Attend
Supply chain risk managers building or refreshing a resilience assessment programme.
Procurement directors prioritising dual sourcing and buffer inventory investment.
Operations and business continuity managers responsible for disruption response planning.
Category managers accountable for single-source or geographically concentrated supply.
Supply chain planners setting inventory policy informed by node-level exposure.
Enterprise risk teams integrating supply chain exposure into the wider risk register.
Course Modules
Select any module to see its sessions and points.
01Mapping Supply Chain Nodes and Dependencies
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Building the Node-Level Map
- Map tier-one supplier facilities alongside the sub-tier dependencies that rarely appear in a standard supplier list.
- Identify shared infrastructure, such as ports or logistics hubs, that create hidden concentration risk.
- Classify nodes by criticality based on revenue impact and substitutability of the goods or services involved.
- Update the node map on a defined cycle as suppliers, sites and sub-tier relationships change.
Session 2Identifying Single Points of Failure
- Flag nodes with no qualified alternative source as single points of failure requiring priority attention.
- Assess geographic concentration risk where multiple critical nodes sit in the same disruption-prone region.
- Review dual-sourcing claims to confirm the alternative source is genuinely qualified and capable at volume.
- Document single point of failure findings in a register reviewed by category and risk stakeholders.
02Calculating Time-to-Recover and Time-to-Survive
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Estimating Time-to-Recover for Critical Nodes
- Estimate realistic recovery timelines for each critical node based on historical disruption evidence where available.
- Adjust time-to-recover estimates for disruption severity, distinguishing a short outage from a total facility loss.
- Validate time-to-recover assumptions with the supplier's own business continuity plan where one exists.
- Avoid anchoring time-to-recover estimates on optimistic vendor assurances rather than tested capability.
Session 2Calculating Time-to-Survive Against Current Buffers
- Calculate time-to-survive from current inventory, in-transit stock and qualified alternative sources.
- Model demand substitution options that extend time-to-survive without additional inventory investment.
- Recalculate time-to-survive as inventory policy, demand or alternative sourcing options change.
- Compare time-to-survive against time-to-recover to quantify the exposure gap for each node.
03Running Structured Stress Test Scenarios
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Designing Disruption Scenarios
- Design stress test scenarios against specific disruption types, such as a fire, port closure or supplier insolvency.
- Vary scenario severity and duration to test how exposure gaps change under different assumptions.
- Run combined scenarios that disrupt more than one node simultaneously to test compounding effects.
- Involve category managers and operations planners directly in scenario design for realism.
Session 2Interpreting Stress Test Results
- Rank nodes by exposure gap to focus discussion on the disruptions that would matter most.
- Translate stress test findings into scenario narratives that leadership can act on without technical detail.
- Track how exposure gaps change over successive stress test cycles as mitigations are implemented.
- Feed stress test findings into the enterprise risk register alongside financial and operational risk.
04Prioritising and Communicating Resilience Investment
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Building a Prioritised Investment Plan
- Prioritise dual sourcing, buffer inventory and continuity contract investment toward the widest exposure gaps.
- Compare the cost of closing an exposure gap against the financial impact of the disruption it addresses.
- Sequence investment across budget cycles where the full resilience plan cannot be funded at once.
- Set contractual continuity commitments, such as minimum inventory or alternate site obligations, into key contracts.
Session 2Presenting Exposure and Investment to Leadership
- Present exposure gap evidence to leadership using the specific nodes and revenue impact at stake.
- Recommend an investment plan with a clear rationale linking spend to reduced exposure at named nodes.
- Report on residual exposure that remains even after planned investment is completed.
- Re-run the stress test annually or after a significant supply chain change to keep the plan current.
What the participant receives
4 course modules
A structured syllabus
8 training sessions
across 5 days
32 detailed points
Applied, detailed content
Accredited attendance certificate
On completing the programme
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