Build a specialty-level physician supply model incorporating headcount, retirement and working patterns.
Healthcare & Pharmaceutical Management
Physician Workforce Planning and Specialty Supply Forecasting
Equips workforce planners to forecast physician supply and demand by specialty, model retirement and training pipeline effects, and build a recruitment plan that closes the resulting gaps.
🗓️Duration5 training days
📚Content4 modules · 8 sessions
🎓On completionAccredited attendance certificate
About the programme
Course Overview
A shortage in a single specialty rarely announces itself until waiting times have already climbed, because the physician pipeline from training place to independent practice runs many years behind the demand signal that eventually reveals the gap. This course builds the forecasting discipline that gives planners earlier warning. Participants construct specialty-level supply models incorporating current headcount, expected retirements and part-time working patterns, and demand models built from population growth, disease prevalence trends and referral patterns rather than headcount alone. The course covers how training pipeline output, including residency and fellowship places, is matched against projected demand years in advance, and where that match structurally fails for specific specialties. Later sessions turn forecasts into action: recruitment strategy for hard-to-fill specialties, retention analysis that identifies why physicians leave a role or region, and scenario planning that tests a workforce plan against optimistic and pessimistic assumptions before it is committed to.
Expected Learning Outcomes
Build a demand model using population, disease prevalence and referral trend data rather than headcount alone.
Match training pipeline output against projected demand to identify structural specialty shortages.
Design a recruitment strategy targeted at specialties with the largest projected supply gap.
Analyse physician retention data to identify the specific causes of attrition in a role or region.
Run scenario planning that tests a workforce plan against optimistic and pessimistic assumptions.
Present a physician workforce forecast and plan in a form that supports funding and policy decisions.
Who Should Attend
Workforce planning leads in hospitals, health systems or ministries of health.
Medical education leaders setting residency and fellowship place numbers.
Physician recruitment and retention managers targeting hard-to-fill specialties.
Health policy analysts forecasting specialty supply and demand at national level.
Department heads planning succession for an ageing specialist workforce.
Finance and planning teams costing physician workforce expansion proposals.
Course Modules
Select any module to see its sessions and points.
01Building Specialty-Level Supply Models
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Modelling Current and Projected Physician Supply
- Build a current headcount baseline by specialty, including full-time equivalent adjustments for part-time working.
- Model expected retirements using age distribution and typical retirement age by specialty.
- Incorporate attrition to other regions or sectors into the supply projection alongside retirement.
- Project training pipeline output by specialty from current residency and fellowship enrolment.
Session 2Accounting for Working Pattern Changes
- Adjust supply projections for trends toward part-time and portfolio working among physicians.
- Model the effect of changing working hour regulations on effective specialty capacity.
- Distinguish headcount growth from effective capacity growth when working patterns are shifting.
- Sensitivity-test the supply model against different assumptions about future working pattern change.
02Forecasting Specialty Demand
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Building Demand Models from Population and Disease Data
- Project population growth and ageing by region to estimate future specialty-level demand.
- Incorporate disease prevalence trends specific to each specialty into the demand projection.
- Adjust demand projections for referral pattern changes driven by new pathways or technology.
- Validate a demand model against recent actual referral or activity volume before relying on it.
Session 2Matching Pipeline Output to Projected Demand
- Compare projected training pipeline output against projected demand for each specialty over a defined horizon.
- Identify specialties where the pipeline structurally cannot close a projected gap without intervention.
- Model the lead time between a training place decision and the resulting increase in specialist supply.
- Recommend training place adjustments that reflect the lead time and projected gap together.
03Recruitment Strategy for Priority Specialties
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Targeting Recruitment at the Largest Gaps
- Prioritise recruitment investment on specialties with the largest and most urgent projected supply gap.
- Design recruitment messaging and channels suited to the career stage of the target physicians.
- Build international or cross-region recruitment pathways where domestic pipeline output cannot close a gap.
- Set recruitment targets and lead times consistent with the specialty's realistic hiring timeline.
Session 2Analysing and Improving Retention
- Analyse exit interview and attrition data to identify the leading causes of physician departure.
- Distinguish retention issues specific to a role or department from issues affecting a whole region.
- Design targeted retention interventions addressing workload, career progression or working conditions.
- Track retention metrics by specialty and department to identify emerging problems early.
04Scenario Planning and Decision Support
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Stress-Testing the Workforce Plan
- Build optimistic, central and pessimistic scenarios for supply and demand assumptions.
- Test how sensitive the workforce plan is to changes in retirement age or attrition rate assumptions.
- Identify which scenario assumptions most affect the recommended training and recruitment numbers.
- Document the assumptions behind each scenario so the plan can be revisited as data updates.
Session 2Presenting the Forecast for Decision-Making
- Translate specialty-level forecasts into training place, recruitment and budget recommendations.
- Present forecast uncertainty honestly rather than presenting a single number as certain.
- Tailor the presentation of workforce forecasts to funding bodies, boards or ministry decision-makers.
- Set a review cycle that updates the forecast as actual supply and demand data become available.
What the participant receives
4 course modules
A structured syllabus
8 training sessions
across 5 days
32 detailed points
Applied, detailed content
Accredited attendance certificate
On completing the programme
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