Conduct an early case assessment within days of a dispute arising, identifying key issues and exposure.
Law & Contract Management
Early Case Assessment and Decision Tree Analysis for Litigation Strategy
Apply early case assessment and decision tree analysis to quantify litigation risk, compare it against settlement value and set a defensible strategy from the outset of a dispute.
🗓️Duration5 training days
📚Content4 modules · 8 sessions
🎓On completionAccredited attendance certificate
About the programme
Course Overview
Most litigation decisions are still made on instinct months into a case, after significant cost has already been spent, rather than through a structured assessment made at the outset when the most value can be protected. This course teaches early case assessment as a formal first step in any dispute: triaging a new matter within days, identifying the key factual and legal issues, and estimating exposure before a strategy is locked in. Building on that assessment, participants learn to construct a decision tree that maps the realistic branches of a case, from motions and disclosure through trial and appeal, and assigns probabilities and cost estimates to each branch so that an expected monetary value can be calculated and compared against settlement offers. The course addresses how to gather the probability estimates honestly, avoiding the common bias toward overconfidence in one's own case, and how to update the tree as new evidence emerges through disclosure and expert reports. Sessions also cover setting a litigation budget aligned to the case's expected value, defining a case theory early enough to guide evidence gathering, and presenting decision tree output to a board or insurer in a form that supports an informed, defensible decision on whether to litigate, settle or walk away.
Expected Learning Outcomes
Build a decision tree mapping the realistic procedural branches of a case from filing through appeal.
Assign defensible probability estimates to each branch based on evidence, precedent and counsel judgement.
Calculate the expected monetary value of a case and compare it against available settlement terms.
Recognise and correct for overconfidence bias when estimating a party's own chances of success.
Set a litigation budget aligned to the case's expected value and key procedural milestones.
Present decision tree analysis to a board, client or insurer to support a litigate-or-settle decision.
Who Should Attend
In-house counsel managing litigation portfolios and reporting exposure to the board
Litigation and dispute resolution lawyers advising clients on strategy and settlement
Claims managers and insurers assessing reserve levels and settlement authority
General counsel and legal operations leaders setting litigation budgets and priorities
Commercial managers deciding whether to pursue or defend a contractual dispute
Risk managers quantifying contingent litigation liabilities for financial reporting
Course Modules
Select any module to see its sessions and points.
01Early Case Assessment: Triage at the Start of a Dispute
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Structuring the First Assessment of a New Matter
- Run an initial triage within days of a claim arising to identify urgent deadlines and preservation duties.
- Identify the key factual disputes and legal issues that will determine the outcome of the case.
- Assess the strength of available evidence, including documents, witnesses and expert requirements.
- Produce an early, high-level exposure estimate to inform initial reserve and resourcing decisions.
Session 2Developing an Initial Case Theory
- Draft a working case theory that explains the dispute in terms a decision-maker can act on quickly.
- Identify the evidence needed to test and, if necessary, revise the initial case theory.
- Align early document preservation and disclosure planning with the emerging case theory.
- Reassess the case theory as new facts emerge rather than treating it as fixed from the outset.
02Building the Decision Tree
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Mapping the Procedural Branches of a Case
- Map the realistic sequence of procedural steps from filing through disclosure, trial and appeal.
- Identify decision points, such as summary judgment applications, that materially change the case's path.
- Represent alternative dispute resolution options, including mediation, as branches within the same tree.
- Keep the tree structure simple enough to support decision-making rather than academically exhaustive.
Session 2Assigning Probabilities and Calculating Expected Value
- Assign probability estimates to each branch based on precedent, evidence strength and counsel judgement.
- Estimate the cost and time associated with each branch of the decision tree.
- Calculate the expected monetary value of the case by combining probabilities, outcomes and costs.
- Stress-test the calculation with sensitivity analysis on the most uncertain probability estimates.
03Comparing Litigation Value Against Settlement
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Evaluating Settlement Offers Against Expected Value
- Compare a settlement offer directly against the calculated expected monetary value of continued litigation.
- Factor in non-monetary considerations, such as precedent risk and reputational exposure, alongside expected value.
- Identify a party's best alternative to a negotiated agreement to anchor settlement decisions.
- Recognise when litigating past a rational settlement point is driven by sunk cost rather than expected value.
Session 2Guarding Against Bias in Litigation Forecasting
- Identify common sources of overconfidence bias in lawyers' own probability estimates.
- Use structured techniques, such as reference class forecasting, to counter optimism in case assessment.
- Incorporate independent or external review of probability estimates for high-value cases.
- Document the basis for each probability estimate to support later review and learning.
04Budgeting, Updating and Reporting the Analysis
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Setting a Litigation Budget from the Decision Tree
- Derive a litigation budget from the cost estimates embedded in the decision tree.
- Set budget checkpoints tied to key procedural milestones identified in the tree.
- Reassess the budget when new evidence or procedural developments shift the expected value calculation.
- Align external counsel fee arrangements with the budget derived from the case's expected value.
Session 2Updating the Tree and Reporting to Decision-Makers
- Update probability and cost estimates as disclosure, expert evidence and interlocutory decisions emerge.
- Present the decision tree and expected value calculation in a format accessible to non-lawyer decision-makers.
- Recommend a clear course of action, supported by the analysis, rather than presenting options without a view.
- Maintain a record of how the analysis evolved to support post-case review and organisational learning.
What the participant receives
4 course modules
A structured syllabus
8 training sessions
across 5 days
32 detailed points
Applied, detailed content
Accredited attendance certificate
On completing the programme
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