Apply IEA and NGFS climate scenario assumptions to demand, price and carbon cost inputs for a portfolio analysis.
Oil, Gas & Energy
Climate Scenario Analysis and Stranded Asset Risk in Oil and Gas Portfolios
Enables analysts to run IEA and NGFS-aligned climate scenarios against an oil and gas asset portfolio, identify stranding risk and disclose the results in line with IFRS S1 and S2 requirements.
🗓️Duration5 training days
📚Content4 modules · 8 sessions
🎓On completionAccredited attendance certificate
About the programme
Course Overview
Investors and regulators now expect oil and gas companies to show, asset by asset, what happens to their portfolio under demand and price paths consistent with recognised climate scenarios, not just a qualitative statement of transition awareness. This course teaches the mechanics of applying International Energy Agency and Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios to a real asset portfolio, translating scenario-level demand, price and carbon cost assumptions into breakeven price stress tests for individual fields, refineries and development projects. Sessions cover how to identify assets at risk of stranding, whether through early retirement, impairment or an inability to clear breakeven thresholds under a given scenario, and how these results feed into reserves reporting, capital allocation and impairment testing. The course then addresses disclosure, working through the governance, strategy, risk management and metrics structure that IFRS S1 and S2 require, and how portfolio-level scenario results are translated into decision-useful disclosure for investors without overstating certainty about an inherently uncertain future. Participants finish able to run a scenario analysis on their own portfolio and draft disclosure that satisfies both technical rigour and reporting requirements.
Expected Learning Outcomes
Translate scenario price paths into breakeven stress tests for individual fields, refineries and projects.
Identify assets at risk of stranding through early retirement, impairment or breakeven threshold failure.
Link scenario analysis results to reserves reporting, impairment testing and capital allocation decisions.
Structure climate-related financial disclosure under the IFRS S1 governance and strategy requirements.
Apply IFRS S2 metrics and targets requirements to portfolio-level scenario analysis outputs.
Draft investor-facing disclosure that presents scenario uncertainty honestly while remaining decision-useful.
Who Should Attend
Corporate strategy and planning teams assessing portfolio resilience to transition scenarios
Sustainability and disclosure teams preparing IFRS S1 and S2 climate reporting
Reserves and asset evaluation engineers incorporating scenario analysis into project economics
Investor relations staff explaining transition risk exposure to analysts and shareholders
Finance teams assessing impairment implications of climate scenario stress testing
Risk management staff building climate scenario capability into enterprise risk frameworks
Course Modules
Select any module to see its sessions and points.
01Climate Scenario Foundations and Application
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Understanding IEA and NGFS Scenario Frameworks
- Compare the demand, price and technology assumptions underlying IEA scenarios from stated policies to net zero.
- Explain the orderly, disorderly and hot-house world pathways used in NGFS climate scenario analysis.
- Identify which scenario variables, including carbon price and commodity demand, are most relevant to portfolio testing.
- Assess the limitations and uncertainty ranges inherent in any forward-looking climate scenario.
Session 2Translating Scenarios into Portfolio Inputs
- Convert scenario-level price and demand paths into asset-specific commodity price and volume assumptions.
- Apply scenario-consistent carbon price trajectories to operating cost and capital expenditure forecasts.
- Align scenario time horizons with asset life, reserve booking periods and planned investment decisions.
- Document scenario input assumptions transparently to support later disclosure and audit review.
02Stranded Asset Risk Assessment
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Breakeven Price Stress Testing
- Calculate breakeven prices for individual fields, refineries and development projects under current assumptions.
- Stress-test breakeven thresholds against scenario-consistent price and cost paths for each asset.
- Rank portfolio assets by resilience, identifying those most exposed to failing breakeven under adverse scenarios.
- Assess how changes in fiscal terms and carbon cost interact with breakeven price under each scenario.
Session 2Identifying and Managing Stranding Risk
- Identify assets facing early retirement, impairment or abandonment risk under adverse scenario outcomes.
- Link stranding risk findings to asset retirement obligation timing and decommissioning cost estimates.
- Assess portfolio-level concentration risk where multiple assets share similar stranding exposure.
- Develop mitigation options, including divestment, repurposing or accelerated abatement, for high-risk assets.
03Financial Reporting Integration
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Linking Scenario Results to Reserves and Impairment
- Assess how scenario-consistent price assumptions affect proved and probable reserves booking under governing standards.
- Incorporate scenario stress test results into impairment indicator assessments for cash-generating units.
- Coordinate scenario analysis timing with annual reserves reporting and financial statement close cycles.
- Communicate scenario-driven reserves or impairment changes clearly to auditors and audit committees.
Session 2Capital Allocation under Scenario Uncertainty
- Incorporate scenario resilience findings into project screening and capital allocation criteria.
- Compare new investment opportunities against the stranding risk profile of the existing portfolio.
- Assess portfolio diversification options that reduce concentrated exposure to adverse scenario outcomes.
- Present capital allocation recommendations that balance near-term returns against long-term transition risk.
04IFRS S1 and S2 Disclosure
2 sessions · 8 points
Session 1Structuring Governance and Strategy Disclosure under IFRS S1
- Describe board and management governance arrangements for climate-related risks in line with IFRS S1.
- Present strategy disclosure that explains how scenario analysis informs business model resilience assessment.
- Structure risk management disclosure describing how climate risks are identified and integrated into enterprise risk.
- Align disclosure materiality judgements with IFRS S1 requirements for decision-useful investor information.
Session 2Metrics, Targets and Scenario Disclosure under IFRS S2
- Select and disclose industry-specific metrics required under IFRS S2 for oil and gas sector reporting.
- Present scenario analysis results and stranded asset findings in the format IFRS S2 requires.
- Disclose targets and transition plan progress in a way that is consistent with scenario analysis outputs.
- Draft disclosure narrative that conveys genuine uncertainty without undermining investor confidence in the analysis.
What the participant receives
4 course modules
A structured syllabus
8 training sessions
across 5 days
32 detailed points
Applied, detailed content
Accredited attendance certificate
On completing the programme
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